{"id":7118,"date":"2026-05-11T19:30:10","date_gmt":"2026-05-11T14:00:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jarvisinvest.com\/jarvis-library\/?p=7118"},"modified":"2026-05-11T19:30:27","modified_gmt":"2026-05-11T14:00:27","slug":"iran-ceasefire-is-cracking-and-oil-is-back-on-a-rollercoaster","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jarvisinvest.com\/jarvis-library\/iran-ceasefire-is-cracking-and-oil-is-back-on-a-rollercoaster\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran Ceasefire Is Cracking, and Oil Is Back on a Rollercoaster<\/strong>"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

If you open any money app this week, you’ll see something that doesn’t look like a market at all, but more like a mood swing. Monday saw a 6% rise in oil prices. It went down 4% on Tuesday. Back up again by Friday. Just one word from the White House and rude jumps. After two hours of a briefing at the Pentagon, it goes back down right away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is not how the market usually works. When a ceasefire only exists on paper and not in real life, this is what happens. The Iran ceasefire is doing just that right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is important if you have money in the market. Let’s go over what’s happening and what it all means.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How We Got There?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The US and Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities in late February 2026. In response, Iran did something it had been threatening to do for years: it closed the Strait of Hormuz. The small area of water between Iran and Oman might not seem important until you learn that every day, about 20% of the world’s oil flows through it. The world’s oil market went into shock as soon as it shut down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the International Energy Agency, it was the biggest problem with oil supplies ever. It’s not too much to say. In January, Brent crude was worth about $70 a barrel. At its peak, it went over $130 a barrel. In March, oil prices went up more than any other month ever. Fears of inflation went up. The plans of central banks had to be changed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After that, in early April, both sides called for a ceasefire, which made everyone breathe again. Oil tumbled. Stocks rallied. The S&P 500 hit fresh all-time highs. Markets basically decided to move on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Except the ceasefire never really held.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What Is Actually Happening Right Now<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The truth that hurts is that violations have barely stopped since the ceasefire was announced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran has been taking ships in the strait for a while now. One week later, on May 5, a cruise missile hit a container ship. A tanker owned by Chinese people was attacked on May 7. This was the first time a Chinese ship was caught in the crossfire. Iran took over another oil tanker on May 8, saying the ship was trying to stop exports. At the same time, the US attacked two Iranian tankers that it said were trying to get around its naval blockade. Then each side said the other fired first.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a Thursday interview with reporters, Trump said it was “just a love tap” and that the ceasefire was still in place. The oil market chose to keep all of its options open. The price of Brent crude went back above $101. WTI was back around $95 again. This week, both contracts had gone up and down more than 6% at different times, sometimes in the same day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For many, the words “you could say the ceasefire has ceased” were the only way to express their thoughts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Strait of Hormuz: Why It’s Important<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Many people don’t realize how much of the world goes through that one small river.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Every day before the war, about 21 million barrels of oil went through the Strait of Hormuz. It is very important to China, India, Japan, and South Korea. About 84% of the oil that goes through the strait is going to markets in Asia. An important part of Europe’s LNG comes from Qatar via the same route. About 20% of all the oil that is used in the world goes through there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You can choose other things. Over the strait, oil can be sent to other places through pipelines in the UAE and Saudi Arabia. But all of them together can’t move the strait more than half of the time. To help close the gap, the US has more oil and LNG to send abroad. However, since the crisis began, the world has already used up about a billion barrels of strategic reserves. It will take time to rebuild these stocks, even after the strait reopens fully.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P Global thinks it could take up to seven months to fully get supply flows back to normal after a real deal is made. Goldman Sachs says that oil prices will probably stay high for a longer time, no matter what happens in the near future with the ceasefire talks. In other words, cheap oil won’t be back overnight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What Does All This Mean for Your Money<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In 2026, renewable energy stocks<\/a><\/strong> have really done well. This year, the XLE energy ETF is up about 35 to 39 percent. Chevron and ExxonMobil are both up more than 20%. In the first quarter, BP made more than twice as much money as it did in the same time last year. It’s because of the war and chaos we’re talking about that these companies are printing money. Oil prices are high<\/a><\/strong> because of the war and chaos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But there is a catch, and it’s a big one. All of that outperformance is based on chaos and fear. As soon as a real peace deal comes together, that premium goes away quickly. In late April, peace rumors were enough to send Brent’s price down 13% in a single session. The stocks that have done the best for you this year could lose all the money you’ve made in just a few days if the right news comes out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But on the other hand, industries that have been hurt all year, like airlines<\/strong>, consumer goods companies<\/strong>, and shipping<\/strong>, could benefit the most if things really settle down. Asian airlines were hit hard by less jet fuel. The price of oil has kept people from spending much. A real solution is what those groups have been waiting for to get things moving.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You should know that nobody really knows how this will end. Citi analysts have said that things won’t be easy to get back to normal, even if the ceasefire lasts. There is still disagreement between the US and Iran about Iran’s nuclear program. This disagreement could break any long-term peace agreement. The daily changes in the oil market remind us that a fragile truce is not the same thing as a resolution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The agreement to not fight with Iran is breaking down. Ships are still being seized. Weapons are still being fired. Still, only a small part of the strait’s normal capacity is being used. Furthermore, oil prices can change by 3 to 7 percent just because of one tweet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is not a situation where investors can just sit back and watch. Too many lives are at risk, and the swings happen too quickly. When you’re investing in energy stocks, keeping an eye on inflation<\/a><\/strong>, or just wondering when your gas bill might go down, you need clarity, not more noise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When then happens, Jarvis Invest<\/strong><\/a> steps in. Jarvis Invest<\/strong><\/a> closely monitors the updates on the ceasefire, the reactions in the oil market, and the sector-level ripple effects, as these are all significant sentiment events, then breaks them down into clear, actionable insights for your stock portfolio<\/strong>. You don’t have to keep reading news apps and second-guessing every move. You can see what really matters and what doesn’t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a market where a rumor can cause prices to change 6%, the investor who stays informed without losing their cool has the upper hand.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

If you open any money app this week, you’ll see something that doesn’t look like a market at all, but more like a mood swing. Monday saw a 6% rise in oil prices. It went down 4% on Tuesday. Back up again by Friday. Just one word from the White House and rude jumps. After […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":7120,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"format":"standard"},"jnews_primary_category":[],"jnews_social_meta":[],"jnews_override_counter":[],"jnews_post_split":[]},"categories":[428],"tags":[307,298,311,333,309,300,301,315],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/jarvisinvest.com\/jarvis-library\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Iran-Ceasefire-Is-Cracking-and-Oil-Is-Back-on-a-Rollercoaster.png","amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jarvisinvest.com\/jarvis-library\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7118"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jarvisinvest.com\/jarvis-library\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jarvisinvest.com\/jarvis-library\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jarvisinvest.com\/jarvis-library\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jarvisinvest.com\/jarvis-library\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7118"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/jarvisinvest.com\/jarvis-library\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7118\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7119,"href":"https:\/\/jarvisinvest.com\/jarvis-library\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7118\/revisions\/7119"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jarvisinvest.com\/jarvis-library\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7120"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jarvisinvest.com\/jarvis-library\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7118"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jarvisinvest.com\/jarvis-library\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7118"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jarvisinvest.com\/jarvis-library\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7118"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}