Stock Market Investment Shot, 19th June 2023

In its reply to SAT, the regulator (SEBI) has asked for the case against Zee promoters to be speeded up. As per the SEBI order, there had been a flagrant case of diversion of funds by the promoters from listed ZEEL to its other unlisted entities. This was detrimental to the interests of shareholders and also for the integrity of capital markets. SEBI, in its interim order, had called for banning Subhash Chandra and Punit Goenka from holding any key management position (KMP) in any listed entity. There were false disclosures too.

The net direct tax kitty of the government for the period to June 17, 2023 has grown 11% to Rs3.80 trillion. While corporation tax accounted for Rs1.57 trillion, personal income tax stood at Rs2.22 trillion. The latter includes STT also. Advance tax collections for the June quarter were also up 13.7% yoy. The gross figure before refunds stood at Rs4.19 trillion. For the fiscal year FY24, the Union Budget has pegged total direct tax collections at over Rs18.23 trillion and as of date, that revenue target appears to be on track for FY24.

After being almost a pariah for a long time, the stock of ITC has turned out to be the star performer of the large caps during the current year. It recent touched a high of Rs454 with market cap scaling Rs6 trillion. Till last year, the market cap of ITC was less than half that of Hindustan Unilever. Now the market cap of ITC is inching closer to that of Hindustan Unilever at Rs6.32 trillion. In calendar 2023 alone, ITC has rallied by 37% against 3.8% gains for the Sensex. ITC has rallied on stable cigarette business and FMCG upsurge.

IRCTC is likely to have competition from a very strong quarter as Adani Enterprises plans to shortly start selling train tickets online. Adani recently bought 100% stake in Stark Enterprises, which owns the online trains portal, Trainman. This will enable Adani Enterprises to challenge the virtual monopoly of IRCTC in the online train ticket booking business. For the Adani group, it is not just a revenue model, but also a very simple and assured method to reach out to the fast-growing Indian middle class consumption market.

Tata Steel has planned capex of Rs16,000 crore for its domestic and global operations during FY24. Out of the total outlay, Rs10,000 crore will be earmarked for its standalone operations while Rs2,000 crore will be for its for its subsidiaries in India. The entire capex will be funded through internal accruals only. Out of the total capex, Kalinganagar will account for 70%, where it is expanding capacity from 3 MTPA to 8 MTPA. The broad expectation is of a surge in steel demand in sync with auto and infrastructure demand.

For the week ended June 16, 2023, a total of 6 of the top-10 most valuable Indian companies by market cap, gained Rs113,704 crore in market value. Reliance Industries gained the most on the back of a series of upgrades on the stock. Big gainers included Reliance Rs63,259 crore, Hindustan Unilever Rs18,738 crore, ITC Rs18,331 crore, Infosys Rs11,059 crore and Bharti Airtel Rs2,016 crore. Market cap losers for the week were TCS Rs12,880 crore, SBI Rs6,515 crore, HDFC Bank Rs4,723 crore and ICICI Rs1,883 crore.

According to a recent report by Sanford Bernstein, by 2030 Reliance could earn up to $15 billion from its new energy business. This business ranges from solar to hydrogen. India is expected to invest up to $2 trillion in clean energy by 2050 and is the next big opportunity to watch out for. India targets solar capacity of 280GW and 5 million tonnes of green Hydrogen production by 2030. Clean energy expected TAM (total addressable market) is $30 billion by 2030 and $200 billion by 2050. Reliance is pegged at 45% of the TAM.

Government is expected to invite financial bids for privatising NMDC Steel after commissioning of blast furnace at the steel plant in Chhattisgarh. They expect it to be value accretive for NMDC Steel; which was hived off from NMDC last year. It will have production capacity of 3 MTPA with government having 60.8% with the balance with the public. Government is looking to give majority control of NMDC Steel along with management control. The stock has gained nearly 50% since its demerger from NMDC and stock listing.

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