Stock Market Investment Shot, 25th August 2022

A day after Adani group announced the indirect acquisition of 29.18% in NDTV, it also planned an open offer to acquire another 26% in NDTV as per extant SEBI regulations. Adani Media Ventures, now headed by Sanjay Pugalia, has acquired the shares through its purchase of VCPL. Based on the spike in prices of NDTV, it looks like the shareholders are quite happy with the likely change in the management of NDTV. However, Prannoy Roy and Radhika Roy will still hold 32.16% stake in NDTV in their personal capacity.

According to renowned economist Pronab Sen, Indian banking sector may be headed for a massive asset liability mismatch. According to Sen, most banks rely on deposits to fund loan books and that is resulting in a potential maturity mismatch. For instance, the average tenure of deposits of Indian banks is 2.5 years while that of loans is 9 years. In normal circumstances, this does not pinch but could come to haunt amidst rising interest rates. Working capital finance shrank from 70% to 35% of bank loan books
in last 20 years.

RBI lifted the bank on new customer acquisition by American Express almost 15 months after the ban was imposed by the RBI in May 2021 due to non-compliance with local data storage norms. RBI noted that AMEX has shown satisfactory compliance, triggering the lifting of the ban. Earlier, the ban on Diners Club and MasterCard had already been lifted. During the ban period, the total number of credit cards issued by American Express fell from 1.51 million to 1.36 million. It is one of the smallest players in this space.

Most global oil traders and banks have stopped dealing with Nayara Energy, in which Rosneft of Russia has a 49% stake. Traders and banks are worried over Western sanctions being extended to them. Nayara has not been sanctioned, but Rosneft is sanctioned and that is reason enough. Nayara needs 400,000 bpd of crude daily for its Vadinar refinery and is relying on state-run Middle East producers and Chinese traders supplying Russian oil. Big traders like Vitol and Glencore have refused to supply crude to Nayara
Energy.

Indian government is planning to sell at least 51% in IDBI Bank. The Indian government and LIC jointly own 94% in IDBI Bank. It is not yet clear how much stake each of the owners will sell. However, both LIC and the government may still retain some stake in IDBI Bank. IDBI Bank has an approximate valuation of $5.3 billion. There is also likely to be relaxation of maximum limits for investors, which will widen the pool of buyers. The government is already on target to achieve its Rs65,000 crore divestment target for year FY23.

The founders of Bharti Airtel are looking to increase their stake in Bharti Telecom, the holding company of the Bharti group. Singapore Telecom (SINGTEL) could be a seller in this transaction. While the Mittal family owns 49.44% stake in Bharti Telecom, SINGTEL holds the balance 50.56%. Bharti Telecom holds about 35.8% stake in Bharti Airtel. The deal is expected to be done at a valuation of Rs7,500 crore and the Mittal family has already raised requisite debt funds for the deal. Bharti Airtel continued to trade
strong.

Between 2012 and 2022, the corporate bond market outstanding paper had gone up four-fold from Rs10.40 trillion to Rs40 trillion. Secondary market volumes in debt paper also spiked sharply from Rs4.40 trillion to Rs14 trillion. However, if you look at the corporate bond market as a percentage of GDP, it is just about 18% for India while it is 36% for China, 80% for Korea and 120% for the United States. The bond market turnover is still largely dominated by the G-Secs. Among corporate bonds, just 20% are AAA rated.

Brent Crude climbed above $100 a barrel on Wednesday after Saudi Arabia suggested that the OPEC may consider cutting output. This is an attempt to align with a likely global slowdown. Last week, Brent Crude had fallen as low as $92/bbl on recession fears. Also, Iran has stopped being recalcitrant and that has raised hopes of a deal with Iran promising another 4 million bpd to the market. The big talking point this week will be the speech by Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole symposium and his take on inflation and
rates.

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