Stock Market Investment Shot, 7th July 2022

The government directed edible oil manufacturers to cut MRP of imported cooking oils by up to Rs10 per litre in next one week. India currently imports more than 60% of its edible oil needs. The lower price must reflect the correction in global prices and the lower duties charged. Edible oil makers have already cut by Rs10-15 per litre last month. Currently, imported brands are trading at a premium to domestic brands and the government wants that gap to be eliminated. Ministry of Consumer Affairs is also seized of the issue.

Reliance Retail entered a long-term partnership with Gap Inc to bring the iconic US brand to India. With this long term franchise agreement in place, Reliance Retail becomes the official retailer in India for Gap. The partnership will leverage Gap’s position as a leading casual lifestyle brand and on the other hand will leverage the omnichannel competencies of Reliance Retail. Gap has been keen to grow the brand across key global markets and India happens to be a high quality and fast growing market for Gap Inc of the US.

Goldman Sachs expects the market value of Kotak Bank to cross $100 billion by FY27 as it gears up for its next phase of transformation. Against the stock price of Rs1,707, Goldman Sachs has set a target price of Rs2,135 for Kotak Bank. It currently trades at a market cap of $42 billion so by FY27, the stock should more than double in value as per Goldman Sachs. HDFC Bank is the only financial services outfit to briefly cross the $100 billion market cap mark. Risk appetite and asset sweating are the key challenges for Kotak Bank.

Russia earned a whopping $24 billion by selling energy products to China and India just in the last 3 months. This was after US sanctions had virtually cut off Russian oil from most markets. In the 3 months to May 2022, China paid $18.9 billion and India paid $5.1 billion to Russia for buying oil, gas and coal. The figure has more than doubled on a yoy basis. For India and China, the deal is attractive as Russia is willing to offer hefty discounts to unwind inventories. Russia accepts payments in non-dollar local
currencies too.

RBI announced a series of measures to diversify sources of forex funding and mitigate currency volatility. RBI exempted FCNR (B) and NRE deposits from computation of NDTL for CRR and SLR for deposits mobilized up to November 04th. Banks can temporarily raise fresh FCNR deposits. It has also widened the scope of debt instruments available for FPIs. In addition, FPIs can also now invest in G-Secs and corporate bonds with residual maturity of less than 1 year. ECB limit is doubled under automatic
route to $1.5 billion.

Shriram Transport Finance Company received approvals from shareholders and creditors for the proposed merger with Shriram City Union Finance. A total of 97% of equity shareholders and 99% of secured and unsecured creditors voted in favour of the deal. This merger will make the combined entity a lending conglomerate funding the complete range of vehicles rather than just CVs. The merger is awaiting the final nod from the shareholders and creditors of SCUF. It will provide a wider canvass for both companies.

Crude oil prices repeated the sharp fall of Tuesday on Wednesday also as it touched a 12-week low price of less than $100/bbl. This was amidst growing fears of demand destruction due to a global recession. In fact, Brent Futures for September delivery fell to $99.78/bbl while WTI crude fell to $96.31/bbl. This marks their lowest levels since 11th of April. The oil sell-off was driven by growing recession fears. Oil prices also took a hit on the back of the hardening US dollar, with the Bloomberg Dollar Index (DXY) at a
20-year high.

Titan reported 3-fold growth in sales for the June 2022 quarter on a yoy basis, largely helped by a low base. Titan also added that its network expansion and campaigns had done extremely well. The total sales has now grown at a CAGR of 20.5% over the last three years. Titan also saw robust sales on the auspicious occasion of Akshaya Tritiya. There was a surge in walk-ins and buyers while the ticket size only improved marginally. There was also good traction shown by the watches and wearables Division
growing 158%.

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