The Nifty50 is at 24,500 levels. The festive season generally brings optimism to the market. Historically, the Nifty50 performance during the month of Diwali has shown mixed results. What will happen to Nifty this time around? Will we make new highs or see a sharper correction? Let us look at the details from this blog of Diwali 2024 Nifty50 Prediction.
Past Diwali Performance
Let us look at the recent year performance of Nifty50 in the Diwali months:
- 2019: Nifty had a relatively flat performance around Diwali, as investors were cautious due to concerns about slowing economic growth in India.
- 2020: Nifty 50 surged significantly in November 2020, driven by global optimism after COVID-19 vaccine announcements and recovery hopes, leading to a sharp rally around the Diwali period.
- 2021: The Nifty 50 was volatile during Diwali, impacted by global factors like inflation concerns and tightening monetary policies.
- 2022: Nifty 50 performed well, with a gain of over 3-4% in October and November, supported by a global recovery and festive demand in India.
- 2023: Nifty 50 rose during the Diwali month (November), driven by strong corporate earnings, improving macroeconomic conditions, and easing inflation.
Muhurat Trading Updates
Muhurat trading is a one-hour-long window that opens for trading on the day of Diwali every year. For 2024, muhurat trading will be conducted on Friday, November 1, 2024. Here are the timing details:
| Diwali Muhurat Trading Session | Start Time | End Time |
| Pre Open | 17:45 hrs | 18:00 hrs |
| Normal Market | 18:00 hrs | 19:00 hrs |
Diwali 2024: Market Prediction
Diwali period is usually bullish for the Indian stock market. However, this time around the market has fallen a few weeks before Diwali. One of the main reasons for the fall is outflow/selling by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs). As of 23 October 2024, FIIs have sold more than Rs 80,000 crore of Indian equity.
The upcoming earnings season will be a crucial factor influencing the market’s direction. Positive corporate earnings can fuel further gains, while disappointing results could lead to a sell-off. As of 22 October, the overall results have been disappointing.
The recent trends in derivative volumes and open interest suggest a mixed sentiment among investors as we approach Diwali. Call options are heavily concentrated at the 25,000 and 25,100 strike prices, indicating a bullish outlook. However, put options are also significant at the 24,800 and 24,700 strike prices, suggesting some caution. Based on the cost of straddles at the at-the-money strike, the market is expected to trade within a range of 25,138 to 24,582 points over the next few trading sessions.
Let us look at stocks recommended by different experts and brokerage house:
Angle One: The stock has already given a 20% rally this month but experts believe the stock to increase further. Angel One stock recently experienced a breakout of a “time & price” consolidation pattern. The mid-term outlook remains bullish, with a buy recommendation above Rs 2,250. The potential price targets include Rs 4,000 in the interim and Rs 4,900 on a breakout. A support level is seen around Rs 2,750. Above this level, the stock is expected to continue its uptrend.
Bajaj Auto: Experts remain optimistic about Bajaj Auto driven by factors:
- Export Growth: The company is focusing on international markets to boost sales.
- Strong Product Demand: Models like the 125cc “Freedom” and the electric “Chetak” are popular.
- CNG and Electric Vehicles: Bajaj is aggressively promoting CNG and electric two-wheelers.
- Premium Products: Triumph motorcycles contribute significantly to Bajaj’s revenue.
BEL: The stock is currently consolidating, trading within a specific price range. After this consolidation, the stock is expected to resume its upward trend. Key support levels are at Rs 240 and Rs 200. The brokerage firm recommends buying BEL stock on dips for the next 6 to 12 months.
What should investors do?
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Conclusion
The performance of the Nifty 50 during Diwali 2024 will depend on a confluence of factors. While there is a general bullish sentiment, the market’s trajectory could be influenced by unexpected events or shifts in investor sentiment. To ride the stock market wave, the best platform is Jarvis Invest. Sign up now.