Stock Market Investment Shot, 5th Sep 2022

Merchandise exports for August 2022 came in 9% lower on sequential basis at $33 billion as per the early estimates put out by the Ministry of Commerce. The final data will be out by the middle of September. Export restrictions on wheat, steel, iron pellets and a delay in execution of orders due to fear of slowdown in developed economies led to the lower exports. Merchandise imports for August stood at $61.68 billion resulting in trade deficit of $28.68 billion. Exports are now expected to touch $750 billion in full year FY23.

In a tragic turn of events, former Tata Sons chairman, Cyrus Mistry, was killed in a road accident. This comes as the second big loss to the Shapoorji Pallonji group after the patriarch passed away earlier this year. Condolences have poured in from all quarters, including from the prime minister of India. Cyrus Mistry, who had been appointed as the first non-Tata chairman of Tata Sons in 2012 was asked to resign in 2016. The Mistry family owns 18.4% stake in Tata Sons. N Chandrasekhar also condoled Mistry’s death.

Byju’s is likely to raise $500 million at a valuation of $23 billion although more details on the fine points of the deal are still awaited. Byju’s in in advanced talks with Abu Dhabi Sovereign Wealth Funds and Qatar Investment Authority for raising the funds. If Byju’s is able to raise funds at these valuations, it would be commendable since most edtech companies have seen substantial erosion in value as PE funds have now developed greater resistance to edtech story. Byju’s is present in 120 countries with 7.5
million paid users.

Paytm, which is owned by One97 Communications, has flatly denied any links with the merchants that are under the ED scanner in the Chinese loan app case. Paytm has also clarified that the funds frozen by the Enforcement Directorate do not belong to Paytm or any of its group outfits. Paytm has confirmed that ED had sought specific information on this subject from Paytm and the same had been furnished.
Concerns arose after the ED had confirmed earlier that it had raided 6 premises of Razorpay, Paytm and Cash-free.

ICICI Bank plans to raise up to Rs10,000 crore through the issue of infrastructure bonds for its project financing and affordable housing businesses. These infrastructure bonds will be exempt from CRR and
SLR requirements. The long term nature of the funds will also help to mitigate asset-liability mismatch in extending project loans to infrastructure and core industry sectors. The bonds have a “AAA” rating from ICRA. As of June 2022, ICICI Bank’s borrowing via long-term infrastructure bonds stood at Rs 38,809 crore.

SpiceJet may have weathered the storm so far but it is time to recapitalize if it has to successfully emerge from the turbulence. SpiceJet faced a series of headwinds in last 3 years like grounding of Boeing 737 MAX and a couple of fatal accidents, apart from a plethora of near-misses. In addition, the
pressure of COVID pandemic on the airline business was always there. Till now, it has managed to raise funding at the right time, but now the infusions needed may be substantial. Cargo and monopoly routes are two bright spots.

The legendary investor Jim Rogers feels that inflation may have gotten better but further rate hikes cannot be ruled out just as the return of inflation also cannot be ruled out. Rogers also predicts that the
world will have a recessionary environment soon enough. On his favourite subjects of commodities and gold, Jim is emphatic. He feels, commodities being real assets would outperform bonds and even equities in a high inflation scenario. However, on precious metals, Jim Rogers is a lot more bullish on silver than gold.

A quiet trend has been visible in India. Rich Indian families are spreading their residency bets with most of their children choosing to live abroad. It is not just about LRS facility and investing in overseas bonds and equities. It is now about having alternate residency. Indians send out about $13 billion annually via the LRS, but the focus is no on residency or citizenship by investment (RCBI) option for wealthy families.
Even residency by investment programs of Malta, Portugal, Greece and the Caribbean are gaining traction.

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