Global Markets Weekly Report 30th May 2026
3 "F"s – Tricky Triad: Freedom, Fairness and Fraternity shaping the global macro outlook.
At a Glance
KEY TAKEAWAYS
The global investment landscape continues to be shaped by the 3 "F"s - Freedom, Fairness and Fraternity, highlighting the interconnected role of currency movements, fiscal discipline and inflation in determining market direction. While global growth remains resilient, rising geopolitical tensions, central bank policies and inflation expectations continue to influence investor sentiment across asset classes.
MARKETS IN FOCUS
This week's report analyses the outlook across major global and domestic markets, including the S&P 500, NIFTY 50, Bank Nifty, CNX IT, CNX Metals, USDINR, US Dollar Index, Gold, Silver and Brent Crude Oil. Each section highlights the prevailing trend, important technical levels and the macroeconomic factors likely to influence market performance in the coming weeks.
SOME OBSERVATIONS IN MARKET MOVES SINCE LAST ONE WEEK -
1. European Central Bank Warns of Financial Stability Risks
2. SpaceX IPO Could Become the Largest in History
3. Private Credit Defaults Reach Record High
4. RBI Annual Report Highlights Strong Domestic Fundamentals
5. Rising Global Climate Risks
6. Reliance Raises Record Samurai Funding
7. Microsoft Tightens AI Spending
8. US Sanctions Iran's Strait Authority
9. China's Industrial Profits Hit a 52-Month High
From the CIO's Desk
"Suffering is the only thing that teaches you who you are" — Rafael Nadal
Highlights
In philosophy and economics, the 3 “F” s fit well. Freedom, Fairness and Fraternity. They have deep interplay of forces. In philosophy freedom of expression, in economics freedom of capital. Fulcrum, without freedom, markets become coercive, erodes autonomy, perforates debates, may end all talk and less action. One can consider flow of investment.
Fairness is equitable justice in philosophy, in economics equity vs efficiency (aka productivity). Fraternity refers to the community over specific individuals, in economics as Adam Smith’s theory of Moral Sentiments highlights sympathy. It talks of reduction of transaction costs via shared values, “moral free zones”. Modern day translates this to Food Fuel and Finance.
Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, brought new F3’s Fuel, Fertilizer and Foreign Exchange. Fuel as India imports near 80% plus, Fertilizer as they are tied to the natural gas and energy derivatives, where supply shocks impacting the prices steeply, Foreign Exchange, compounded by multiple factors, FII out-flows, gold buying, decline net FDI, rising import bill plus RBI intervention to stem rupee fall. FM pleads these are external shocks while the domestic economy is resilient.
The tricky triad is currency, fiscal deficit and inflation. Fiscal deficit certainly will get impacted. Budgeted fiscal deficit is 4.3%, FM herself stated near 1 L Crore that is 40 bps impact. Fertiliser subsidies are around 1.7 Lakh crore but expected to move up by 50K Crore, another 20 bps. Addition burden on fuel price hike, but that is reasonably adjusted with the series of hikes, hence below current peak of oil that is less impactful. Wide range of deficit moving from budged 4.3% to even 5% that is near 70 bps which looks optimistic if current situation is extrapolated. One has to wait and watch how it unfolds going forward.
In philosophy and economics, the 3 “F” s fit well. Freedom, Fairness and Fraternity. They have deep interplay of forces. In philosophy freedom of expression, in economics freedom of capital. Fulcrum, without freedom, markets become coercive, erodes autonomy, perforates debates, may end all talk and less action. One can consider flow of investment.
Coming to foreign Exchange challenges, RBI intervention is at highest in near one and half decade, the forward liabilities also mount by similar records. The net FDI remains at low, while Gross is not revealing the impact. Calls for removal of various taxes may help domestic equity markets and are not sure with similar impact when relative attractions remain elusive.
Inflation, though not a threat, current increase in costs, are expected to have impact on incoming inflation. Though RBI is confident of the final inflation remaining within the range, the near-term impact on yields remains pressured. Yield equation further complicated when the global yields as well as inflation remains on the ascendent.
US April PCE rises 3.8% the highest since May 2023. Q1 GDP revised lower to a gain of 1.6%, 150 bps of growth from information processing, software and R&D. Durable goods order lift from strong Boeing Orders. ECB April meeting confirms its hawkish bias.
Data to watch Japan unemployment, consumer confidence, German and Europe inflation, US ISM Manufacturing, JOLTS jobs data, ISM Services PMI, US Non-farm Payrolls, Australia GDP Growth, RBI interest rate decision and India GDP growth rate.
SPOOS: Memorial Day
Nothing surprises, markets print All Time High, a Memorial Day when one considers the cloudy and pessimistic metrics that are all over.
Is it over valuation or earnings over valuation is to be the case that one needs to see.
New investments continue to drive stocks, latest to join is the Dell.
Markets move beyond NVIDIA the chip producers, while the economic data continues in relative sense stable.
Yields cool a whopping 20 bps from recent highs.
Chicago PMI surges 4 Year High, FED minutes indicate willingness to hike rates.
Energy stocks cool on the backdrop of fall in Oil prices, while US 30 Year mortgage rates jump to 9 months high.
While big picture is strong near term pull back is not ruled out.
Rising divergences can halt the rally before one more rise.
Despite the sharp rise, incremental momentum and probability oscillators show some moderation.
Mid 7600 to cap while 7480 near term base.
NIF TY50: Pandits Voice, Punters Whine
RBI projects FY27 GDP growth at 6.9%, below FY26 levels.
Strong domestic demand, investments, banking strength and government capex remain key growth pillars
West Asia conflict impact remains contained for now.
Risk could escalate if tensions persist longer than expected.
IMD lowers monsoon outlook to 90% of Long Period Average.
Lowest projection in over a decade, with Northwest India likely most affected.
FII taxation and capital gains structure remain key concerns.
Economists increasingly view tax policies as a larger hurdle than macro fundamentals.
The bigger concern is slowing private sector investment.
Falling savings rates and weak productivity gains continue to weigh on long-term growth.
Total Factor Productivity remains modest.
Economic Survey data shows productivity easing from 1.9% to 1.7%.
Markets filled the gap but failed to deliver monthly gains.
Late-hour selling was largely attributed to portfolio rebalancing flows.
The broader market remains locked in a triangle formation.
Such structures typically emerge during periods of extreme optimism or pessimism.
NIFTY remains within the 23,400–24,400 range.
A decisive breakout is required for directional clarity.
Cautious optimism continues to prevail.
Macro fundamentals remain supportive, but near-term risks warrant discipline.
BANKNIFTY: The fulcrum is Central – Bank!
RBI annual report projects inflation at 4.6%, domestic growth resilient.
The three Fs remain the challenges,
FII outflows remain elevated.
Concern on Fiscal deficit due to increase in Agricultural Subsidy
weighs near term.
This week RBI MPC meet,
though market does not expect any rate decision, the measures or the talk or the points to look for.
10 Year Yields retreat, Oil falls, rupee stable from the recent lows
lends some leeway.
GDP Growth is the one to watch for
comes after the RBI policy.
Monday Industrial Production and Manufacturing number to watch.
From the charts
the gap up of 25th May is filled in three days with larger move down that is negative to start with.
The bigger gap is 52800 that is far off.
53700–54700 are the levels to watch for,
Starts with negative tone
CNXIT: Wi-pro-AI!
From worries the space moves to value.
Moody upgrades of TCS, Wipro embracing AI and partnership with ServiceNow and select technology spaces moving higher lends a patchy positive tone but lacks broader bullish scope for reversal.
In case of broader market sell of this will fall less, Broder market rise this will rise less.
From the technical picture, the inlet shows a potential short term inverse head and shoulder that can push a rise in the near term, but the big picture remains in range.
Challenges in H1B and Hiring worries continue.
28300–30300 is deeper range to negotiate.
CNXMETALS: Remain Overweight
Despite the fall, which is typical of profit taking
when the broader market wilts.
Private investment continues to channel into this sector,
with JSW mega steel project getting the Government back up.
Vedanta Chief calls more domestic driven production of metals
both base/industrial and precious.
Government withdraw anti-dumping duties on low ask coke
to meet domestic supply shortages.
Ministry of Steel holds OPEN HOUSE with Industry stakeholders
to monitor SIMS (Steel Import Monitoring System).
On the charts the profit taking can hold the near term,
the big picture is still robust and in for more gains.
Daily bearish engulfing and negative divergences can print pressure towards 12900 area,
while a direct move past 13800 elevates the bulls.
USDINR: Needed Samurai!
The larger picture remained under pressure, among various measures, the one clear and visible mode is corporates raising FC liabilities to bring stability to the currency.
The big picture is a high wave candle. The current imbalance in the CAD will not go away in a hurry until visibility on trade and domestic challenges come to a reasonable measure.
Lower yields, lower crude prices provide a start point, while uncertainty in the longevity of Gas and Crude prices remain concerns.
Recent moral suasion on Gold, travel and less dependency on FC resources need a longer period of conformity.
RBI Policy is another event market keenly looking forward.
Near term charts print a blended dark cloud while the big picture still on ascendent.
94.50–96.50 is larger range.
DXY-USDOLLARINDEX: Heads or Tails – Coin toss?
Alan Greenspan former US FED Chair, famously quipped, Currency forecasting is coin toss.
It is almost a year since the tariff start dollar has loss big and has not yet recovered.
No longer tariff on the mainstream, the US economy doing relatively well,
the rate differential remains in narrow band.
Against major’s dollar remained narrow band and against EM it has its ascendent.
Two big moves that dollar witnessing is against the Chinese Yuan hitting near 3 years high
and against less telegraphed Isreal Shakel 32 year high (dollar down against both).
Despite the stronger economy and higher yields, the head winds on path of rates are unclear
more so with the change at the Chair, Europe on the other hand clearer path of hike including the UK.
From the charts many see an inverted HnS, but the remains to be tested on the neckline.
It looks more probable continued inverse head and shoulder which means a move down or a failed one inv head and shoulder.
Dollar bulls inability to move past 99.50 in the best of the canvass suggest
near term contained below 99.80 for move below 98.00
A break of 97.50 is needed for next move down on the USD Index.
Gold (XAU): Round trips
The global moves are more in the range that we have witnessed in the last two months than otherwise.
Central Bank's selling, rising yields are negatives, while recency bias keeps the space well anchored.
Retail demand reportedly falls near 70% post the duty hike.
Last week direction of 4580 and 5330–4380 worked well and there is no reason at this point to paint a very rosy picture.
Higher interest rates, inflation are negatives to gold, softer dollar can help near term in case it unfolds.
US–IRAN ceasefire, link is broken and not necessary a direct up or down.
4480–4580 daily close pushes near term direction up or down. Big picture remains consolidation.
Silver (XAG): Resolution after reaction
Moves in precious hurdle for Silver, while Industrial moves supporting.
Contrary impression to Gold, higher low higher high while both have bearish engulfing.
Some more consolidation is the quick to note, however, larger shadows throw some suspicion on the stability.
70–80 reverts as the range to watch.
The graph posts a trendline break, the action, followed by a reaction. One needs to wait and see the resolution part, which unfolds once the horizontal line break on close basis.
Stochastics are showing over sold conditions and expect a rally than otherwise.
A close above 81 on daily basis opens up move to 90 plus near term.
Brent: At the Tank Level
US IRAN Comments continue to drive the price. The premium across the category’s crashes.
Oman Crude to Indian Basket. The fall in recent days is almost near 20% from the peak.
While one would wish to see the bigger fall as POTUS claims, the reality is otherwise.
From Japan, China to US Strategic Reserves have depleted. In addition, the damage to infrastructure will take time to resume supply.
So far, the expectation of Strait of Hormuz reopening is doing the trick, even this the timeline is not clear. The optics are playing out now.
Crude is the new Gold, and hence any fall nations would like to replenish their tanks which is vital, that remains the story and the price action mirrors on the higher consolidation than otherwise.
85–105 is the new range before new flare up if any.
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