Global Market Weekly Report- 28th June, 2026
The End or the beginning!
At a Glance
SOME OBSERVATIONS IN MARKET MOVES SINCE LAST ONE WEEK -
UK PM Starmer Resigns, Attention Shifts to Burnham
India and US "Very Close" to a Trade Deal, Says Commerce Minister
South Korean Stocks Volatility Hits 5x US VIX After Doubling Gains
US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Strong Dollar Reflects Strong Economy, Sees Echoes of 1990s Expansion
Goldman Sachs Sees No 2026 Rate Cuts; Bank of America Flags Potential for 3 Hikes
Gold Falls Nearly 15% in 40 Days, Worst Stretch in 13 Years
World Policy Uncertainty Index Drops From 200+ Peak (Sep 2025) to 150 (May 2026)
Emerging Market Volatility Outpaces US and Europe, Per NY Fed
Apple Raises Prices by 20%, a New Source of Inflation
From the CIO's Desk
"I know you think you understand what you thought I said, but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant." — Alan Greenspan
Maestro, former FED Chair Alan Greenspan, breathed last on 22 June, at the age of 100. He served as Chair of Fed '87 to 2006, second longest in Fed history. The market knows or coins this period as Greenspan era. A poster boy of financial markets who is known for his vocabulary usage of financial market communications, often bordering our own Shashi Tarur, that followed need for effective communication by the subsequent Fed chairs. One of his quotes "I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I said."
Greenspan is known for his skilful handling of shocks, popularly called Greenspan put. He favoured judgments over decisions, instead of strict rules. He advocated sustained price stability, strong growth and tech booms. While his policies were often criticized as too easy policies or prolonged low rates, which led to financial innovation or the dot-com bubble that contributed eventually to the financial crisis. To sum up his era, a powerful market-oriented, discretionary central banker during a period of stability that masked financial imbalances.
Are we seeing a regime change now? In other words, is it the end for a new beginning or an extension of what we are? Interestingly, Kevin Warsh, the new FED Chair, overlapped Alan Greenspan's tenure. Greenspan credit, first to issue statements after each FOMC, publicly release minutes of each meeting and with fully transcripts after five years. Who can forget his timeless phrase of "irrational exuberance".
Warsh explicitly cited Greenspan as his role model for leading with energy and purpose and staying faithful to Fed traditions. Warsh comes with a regime change mindset, a rethinking on Fed operations, which he explicitly mentioned in his first press conference announcing five tasks, calling them his "first principles". First one, Fed communication or the dot plot or the forward guidance is taken off.
Contrast this to Alan Greenspan's verbiage and subsequent moves towards clearer communication, now taking that off from the table of forward guidance. Other focus areas remain the Fed balance sheet, productivity and jobs, and then last but not the least, the inflationary framework. Productivity in an era of transformative technology or AI.
Highlights
To sum up, less heavy forward guidance, a quieter Fed, emphasis on credibility, independence, and inflation control, contrary to what market expected, towing down the line of POTUS.
Is it a change with a velvet glove or change of asserting and printing Warsh's own stamp of guiding and gliding the economy? That is interesting as so many asset classes, starting from dollar, interest rates, prices of commodities, flow of capital, credibility and trust. Indeed, in for interesting times. A new beginning, an end to FED put? The first signs, we don't see lot of FED post FOMC which was quite usual.
Manufacturing PMI, US prints 55.7 (55.1), Europe 49.5 (48.5), US Core PCE MoM comes as expected at 0.3%, Durable Goods Orders MoM -4.5% Vs estimated -5.0%, US GDP growth rate QoQ Final 2.1% against 1.6% consensus.
Coming week data to focus, Europe Economic Sentiment, Europe Inflation, India Industrial and Manufacturing Production YoY, Japan Industrial production and unemployment, Japan Tankan Survey, China Manufacturing PMI, UK GDP QoQ Final, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, US Non-farm Payrolls,
MSCI postpones review, Indonesia gets relief, Korea awaits, Korea was in developed market category in 2014.
UK PM Starmer resigns attention shift to Burnam
India and US are very close to a trade deal, Commerce Minister says.
South Korea Stocks remain volatile, measured as 5 X of US VIX after doubling the gains.
Treasury Secretary Bessent Says, Stronger Dollar Reflects underlying US Economy, good chance of repeat of 1990 extended expansion
Chorus on no Rate cuts in US by Goldman Sachs in 2026, while Bank of America expects potential 3 rate hikes.
Gold fall near 15% in the last 40 days, worst in its history of 13 years
World Policy uncertainty Index drops from peak of Sep 2025 above 200 reading to 150 in May 2026 as per Chicago Board Options Exchange
VIS Volatility Index is for greater for EM than for US and Euro Stocks (FED NY)
Apple rises prices by whopping 20% a new source of inflation
SPOOS - Paycheck Recession
Goldman says there is no recission, but your paycheck is acting like it. US consumer real wages go into negative first time.
JP Morgan rises yearend target to 7800, citing unprecedented earnings upgrade cycle.
Wells Fargo sees the index to 8600–8800 by end 2027 on ultra bullish outlook.
US economic surprises Index at 63.2 highest since 2023
Nasdaq in an hour witnessed 1000 point move on Thursday, Micron results have not helped as the PCE inflation rose and expectation of rate hike mount.
JP Morgan warns of flash crash despite holding the year end higher targets.
Dollar rise, inflation mounting, yields dropping (sign of safety for the first time) all are potential head winds.
SPX close below 7350 does not augur well for near term big base is 7000.
7450 now caps any rise.
NIF TY50 - Bulls Cele "Brity"
Bulls celebrate being above 24000 while briefly flirting above 24200. One reason for the market to give back can be month end expiry of Sensex and shorter weekend.
On another news SEBI allows billionaire Celebrities to endorse stockbrokers and mutual fund brands. One really don't understand what economic purpose it achieves.
India trade minister tells US India trade deal is closer.
India imposes 5-year anti-dumping duty on chemical from China US and EU.
From the breadth indicator more than 40% stocks are above the 200 Moving average, near 15% are above the 200 DMA by a measure of 0–10%, 11% stocks are more than 20% deviation from 200 DMA.
For the bearish note 20% stocks are below the 200 DMA by more than 20%.
Of this (MA more than 20% below or above the price) bearish note only 22 stocks with market cap of more than 200 billion rupees whereas bulls hold near 47 stocks in this category.
The large caps bulls hold 198 stocks whereas bears hold 104 stocks, in Mid-caps 162 stocks in bearish mode while 125 in bull mode, in small caps 90 in bull mode whereas whopping 388 are in bear mode.
The interesting point is this is mean reversion excess that is more the number of stocks away from 200 MA by largest measure. Clearly the large caps show strength, while mid and shows the corrective move higher. Another point to keep is rumoured cabinet re-shuffle if anything will add strength to the market as sentiment change.
From the technical picture 24300 close above is the new beginning for bulls while bears 23300, the fulcrum is 23800.
BANKNIFTY - Resilience By Design
An interesting perspective of lessons from Indian banking sector, titled with the "Resilience by Design" in the monthly report is worth reading. Calibrated adaptive resolution, stress, strength are all not fixed achievement, but continued institutional framing work, opines the author.
RBI Governor says no need for rate hike now.
RBI says ease of investing measure to be announced in a few days.
Indian basket crude prices fall from peak of $120 to $90 reaching April 24 levels.
10 Year yields too back to the prewar levels of 6.85 giving ample relief and scope for fiscal moderation.
The shape of the yield curve remains higher than one in April 2026 but lower than in May, the far end remains still elevated and closer to the May yields.
Similar fall is seen in the corporate bonds and the spread between risk free rate and corporate bonds fell in AAA one-year bonds.
Most important and interest piece of information is the continued credit growth which is more forward looking as in the below picture. Growth is more in MSME and Large industries. Credit growth to industry from below 6% in April 2025 now at 15.1%.
Another notable measure is the new rules on credit derivatives for hedging purposes.
From the technical picture the odds favour bulls despite the volatility 56,400 is the new base while incremental gains past 58,400 on close basis adds more vigour.
CNXIT - Watering The Data
Moody warns India's water stress could worsen as AI data centres drive demand.
Value buying and value zone took the index in one of the days higher rekindling hopes of a base. While negativity is eroding, the optimism remains ad hoc.
Infosys reports $1B in annual AI services revenue. It says it is supporting AI projects at 90% of its top clients. Veteran tech experts espouse each organisation should have its own version of AI. If this trend transcends then that is an opportunity waiting in the wings.
Amazon investing $13 billion in data centres in India.
From the technical picture, which is noiseless graphs of point and figure, the trend line shows periods of false move break own before next leg higher. The line is an extension of previous supports, currently intersection of horizontal and this upward sloping line. There is also a small downward sloping channel can appear as wedge. This break to the upside is the first signal of bottom in this sector. Near term 27–28 K break on close basis provides clues for direction.
The bottom line: Macro risks are real, but selective opportunities in AI, digital infra, and data ecosystem are building up.
CNXMETALS - Metals On "Vedanta"
Metals face synchronised fall, aggressive bets on metals getting painful exit as CTA's aggressively cut, Kepler data shows CTA's exit roughly 11500 lots of Comex Copper, in addition to other base metals like Aluminium.
Vedanta stock faces worst performance in four years, post de-merger the global metal canvas inflicting on all metal stocks without any exception. The pain is more in some of the stocks which had parabolic moves.
SAIL lost near 20% from the peak. The near term out look is muddle between FED rate hikes, worries on AI (any bubble here can potentially damage the demand side of the equation).
Technical picture perfectly held the supply and the decent is healthy in the longer run.
12400 close is an opportunity if one looks to bear the near-term pain, this mimics the recent bank index falls which recaptured the entire down move. 12000–13000 is the near-term larger zone. While 12200 offer some relief.
DXY - The New Driver
US Treasury secretary says strong dollar is representative of strong economy.
BofA says three rate hikes this year.
Despite the energy prices cooling off, the Core CPI, Core Services CPI (which is 60% of CPI), CPI Shelter (which is 35% of CPI) and PPI Core less of food and energy all are rising and above the early 2024 levels. Two years real back to the levels seen end 2024 levels.
One notable observation is yields have not fallen in the same breadth as the energy prices or the commodities fall, that tells all together different story.
While conventional graphs indicate different picture than point and figure, the weight of balance needs tilt in all frames and pictures.
Near term dollar is strong above the 100.60 area, the real trigger for greater gains unfolds when it closes above the 101.80 hurdle. Else the 99.90–101.80 range to work for some time to come.
TADAWUL - Inward Bound
Saudi Arabia oil exports continued to decline falling record low of 3.99 million bpd in April. Oil exports rose 11.7% in April SAR 69.6 billion that is near 69% of total exports despite decline about 25% in shipments.
Non-oil exports, including re-exports rose 4%. New Roads and Development program launched fourth phase SAR 9.8 billion.
Bloomberg quotes, Saudi Central Bank pulled billions of dollars from at least two global asset managers, a sign of new trend in allocation.
Real Estate transactions drop 77% to SAR 22.6 in May compared to a year, Riyadh 49% while Makkah 22% in share.
The week also witnessed Islamic bond issuances near $3 billion maturities spanning almost 15 years.
Q1 GDP growth 3% YoY, data to watch Riyad Bank PMI.
Technical picture vacillating between bulls n bears, higher high and lower high indicating a closer apex for clear trending moves.
GOLD (XAU) Shift To Liquidity From Safety
Metals in general melt on the backdrop of rising dollar and prospects of no rate cut or hike in rates. China tightens margin in leveraged gold and silver trading as high as 140%.
RBI says Gold in reserves is for safety as well as liquidity as and when needed.
Deutsche Bank cuts gold outlook, hawkish FED, resilient US economy and weakening demand are the reasons cited.
GOLD remains on a neutral stance, sell on rallies than a buy on dips. Price action around 4000 longer it spends a panic move down is not ruled out.
Relatively Gold looking softer than industrial metals. Wanning Central Bank buying optimism or the retail participation some of the considerations.
From the technical picture 3930–4130 range is what one can negotiate with 50-dollar slippage on the down side than on the upside.
From safety Gold moved to liquidity.
SILVER (XAG) - Bulls Bad Conductor
Silver is the best conductor of energy, unfortunately it is bad conductor for the bulls.
It is still up 20% compared to the six months back that is if any the consolation.
These kinds of moves in silver are nothing new and silver is prone for this. It called as Widowers metal for no reason.
The range quickly shifts to 55–65 for consolidation before any meaningful up move.
Watch tab and risk off and on in the equity markets.
Higher dollar, crash in equity falling yields is signs silver to move lower than higher.
Risk on, calmer financial markets, stable yields and stable or falling dollar aids.
Brent - Food For Fuel
US Iran final deal, clarity on the deal and the support to Iran of $300 billion which is nothing but to buy American agricultural products is basically a barter of food for fuel.
US passes bill allowing all round the year E15, blended energy.
Oil has two head winds, one prospect of nations securing the energy security by filling their SPR, supply of new Oil from Iran, UAE being out of OPEC can technically produce more, it is now twisted to buyers' market.
The Oil curve on the other hand is flattening, sings of more supply. The forward premium vanished, the front end is getting sold off leading to contango.
IEA slashes 2026 demand growth by 700K barrels per day that is additional supply.
While the rise is excessive the fall also is equally excessive, a realistic level of average 80 is what the market will settle for. Current price is an opportunity than a risk off mode.
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