Global Markets Weekly Report 21st June 2026
What "lies" on the line
At a Glance
Markets in focus
This week's report analyses the outlook across major global and domestic markets, including the S&P 500, NIFTY 50, Bank Nifty, CNX IT, CNX Metals, USDINR, US Dollar Index, Gold, Silver and Brent Crude Oil. Each section highlights the prevailing trend, important technical levels and the macroeconomic factors likely to influence market performance in the coming weeks.
From the CIO's Desk
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a prespective, not the truth — Marcus Aurelius
Financial Assets are price on a line with time on X axis and Value on Y-axis. There are normal moves and exponential moves. Both are different in breadth and dimension. A simple equation for a line, Y = a × bˣ, the search for truth or lies on the line is forever a question of curiosity in financial markets.
Dotcom as well as current AI has given exponential moves in the financial markets. While the 2008 financial crisis can be ascribed to the low interest rates leading to leverage at the investment and financial firms. Valuation guru, Mr. Damodaran explains present extreme valuations are ascribed to the debt, more so the private debt. He has been cautioning on a potential fall or a crash of unimaginable proportion.
We also see how a $1 movement in price of SpaceX can change wealth of Elon Musk. The opposite of exponential is logarithmic. That is division rather than multiplication in a measured pace. It is also equivalent of growth versus decay; decay or scaling. The arguments that suggest bubble, point to the extreme long-term earnings growth expectations, massive AI infrastructure by the tech, historical parallels, warning from past manias, mostly arising from inflation or the IPO frenzy.
Those who don’t subscribe to the bubble arguments, point the earnings of AI are real, unlike the dot-com bubble. AI is genuinely transformative with broad productive gains. In fact, this scepticism is fuel to further price gains. Elon Musk terms it as recursive multiplicative exponential. That is supernova. It is no longer humans building robots. It is robots building robots.
It is not one exponential trend. It is three exponential trends multiplying together. The digital intelligence, the AI chip capability, and electromechanical dexterity.
In the words of Shikha, former CEO of Infosys, “What could have been done by 500 people on a rigorous stress ranging two and a half years, AI is able to do in one hour.” Clearly, what lies ahead on the line is anyone’s guess. While what SpaceX IPO is to US (two more IPOs to hit down the line), we in India have two large IPOs hitting, Jio and NSE. But we don’t see that euphoric moment yet, as underlying markets are relatively subdued on the broader sense. The other meaning of line is a boundary, threshold, or liminal space that borders the excessive or limitations of progress. Friedrich Nietzsche, in his works on truth and lies in a non-moral sense, argues truth is a mobile army of metaphors. The line between truth and lie is not fixed by divine decree, but forged by human will, language, and power.
Shiller CAPE Ratio is another that is referred to as valuation excess in bubble territory. It is cyclically adjusted PE, smoothing earnings over 10 years, it currently sits around 42. This is above the long-term historical average of 17 and ranks as second highest level in over 140 years, surpassed only by the dotcom peak of 44.
Highlights
The other meaning of line is a boundary, threshold, or liminal space that borders the excessive or limitations of progress. Friedrich Nietzsche, in his works on truth and lies in a non-moral sense, argues truth is a mobile army of metaphors. The line between truth and lie is not fixed by divine decree, but forged by human will, language, and power.
Shiller CAPE Ratio is another that is referred to as valuation excess in bubble territory. It is cyclically adjusted PE, smoothing earnings over 10 years, it currently sits around 42. This is above the long-term historical average of 17 and ranks as second highest level in over 140 years, surpassed only by the dotcom peak of 44.
FED post FOMC statements the number of words moved from 341 to 130 words removing all forward guidance and easing bias. Japan trade balance print deficit first in four months, currency is the real culprit. Europe industrial production rose 0.1% m/m in April while trade balance hits deficit on the backdrop of soaring imports which printed 10.1% y/y. China May Industrial output exceeds expectations and prints 4.5% aided by strong exports. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment hits 48.9 remains weak. Japan core inflation 1.4% on expected lines while inflation at 1.5%.
Coming week data, India Infrastructure output, India, German, UK and US Manufacturing PMI flash, German IFO business climate Index, US Core PCE Index, Durable goods orders and GDP QnQ final and Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations.
Bank of Japan rises rates to 1.00% levels not seen since 1995, USDJPY hits 161.81.
FED move to hold, removing guidance is the new unknown of known, has global implications, missing the dots in the plot.
Trump signs deal at Palace of Versailles, where German Surrender was sealed in 1928 WW I.
EU parliament final approval to implement July Tariff agreement.
Swiss voters reject proposal to cap population to 10 million (aka Swiss Brexit).
Market fully price October rate hike by FED, while 35% chance of hike in July.
Anthropic CEO warns 50% of all entry jobs to eliminate and floats AI tax.
Australia declares El Nino set to be strongest in decades.
SPOOS - Wars to Warsh!
FED New Chair, markets filtering the approach to the markets. So far, it treats his move as hold, remove guidance, keep liquidity ready.
FED Day, the first day of past FED Chairs and market performance, from Ben Bernanke till now all are negative and this time is no different. But 1.2% fall on Warsh first appearance is the largest in comparison.
Markets now move from cease fire to negotiation tactics now that the details are out.
FED rate hike expectation, the markets continue to see as stronger economy, Russel 2000 hits all time high of near 3K.
$165 billion global equity rebalancing stock selling to impact coming week as per JPMorgan.
Another interesting fact CTAs projecting to sell in every single scenario over the next week based on the market data.
From the technical picture, the swings are reflective of the broad diamond pattern that is in motion, in some frames they might appear as expanding triangle.
The price action is in the middle of the horizontal line drawn inside the diamond. Above that minor bullish below minor bearish, break of the diamond pattern usually more effective on the down side than the upside is the caution.
7300–7600 is the range that drives either ways.
NIF TY50 - Wait and watch
RBI Governor in the minutes of the policy meeting says, prefer to adopt “wait and watch” approach. Status quo appears the approach.
The investors appear to view 24K as the status line above or below marketing the optimism and pessimism.
One important bit of news that goes to stabilise is the new SEBI approval to re-introduce open market window for share buyback.
Jio IPO and NSE IPO sure to rekindle the optimism than result in selling to generate liquidity as is the norm before large IPOs
Rating agency ICRA expects weak Q1 FY 27 with contraction near 100–150 bps. While most of the mentioned concerns have abated in the recent days, what is important to note, markets are always head of the actuals.
US Trade Representative are to hold pact talks this week. Recent Trump and PM Modi meeting augurs well for positive expectations.
IMD until June 14, monsoon deficit is at 28% that is another concern, but real picture emergence by end of this month.
From the technical picture 23600–24600 drives the moves on big frames. Near term 23850–24250 drives the direction, the weekly bullish Maribozu followed by gap up suggestive that the market is in for more gains than losses. 23830 is the new base while market tries towards the 24430.
BANKNIFTY - Calmer Sea, saner Bank’s
Hormuz Cease fire sign off, colling crude oil prices, falling yields, expectation of liquidity more so the Foreign Currency either through the FCNR B scheme or the stream of corporate bond rising are pushing the near-term currency fall in check.
Direct tax collection continues to rise 14.6% while net corporate tax collections rose 22%. Interestingly STT grew 45%. Advance tax collections grew 15.3% to 1.78 L Crores another positive forward input.
With EL Nino remains as more severe the demand for power remains strong.
The All-India Output PPI for May 2026 stood at 109.6 whereas it was 108.6, the new introduction of PPI will replace the Whole Sale Price in line with IMF recommendations. The PPI provides the path of inflation from Producer to the Consumer.
May Wholesale Price hits 9.68% on high energy prices, while market sees this as one of bumpy ride.
RBI Survey of Professional Forecasters (June 2026) projects current account deficit of 2.1%.
FM Comments on steps for more foreign capital adds one more layer of confidence to the market sentiment.
Continued flow of FPI investment into debt, pushing the yields lower towards 6.85 for the ten-year tenor. CCIL (Clearing Corporation of India) reports near 33000 Crores flow into debt from FPIs.
From the technical picture, the bears last stop for hope is 58500 while bulls hold strong 56800, while this area holds expect moves towards the 58500 area. A direct break below 56800 halts the up move and reverts to the range bias, the probability is low but open to possibilities.
CNXIT - Consumer to Creator
Mukesh Ambani says, India should not be mere consumer of AI created elsewhere, and must become a creator, adaptor and global leader in AI. Chinese AI are equally used globally in comparison to US and the gap is narrowing.
Accenture results spook the IT index and the confidence and out look remained weaker. Buy back above the market prices have not lifted the sentiment any better.
HCL tech investment into SARVAM AI, though optics, cushions and indicates urgency in embracing the AI as bare necessities even as SARVAM turns the new Unicorn.
Global cues, dollar moves remain points of penetration while AI remains the fulcrum that shifts between the optimism and pessimism.
From the technical picture, the recurring shadows around the longer line of support is a point to consider for any incremental pessimism to build.
If the broader market turns constructively, this space may potentially turn as low-risk long opportunity. Though too early to throw once dice. 28500 26000 range to observe on monthly close basis.
CNXMETALS - The new Metal Sense
Metals dampen continue, the FED hawkish tone, inflation concerns and suddenly the rising dollar are the head winds.
Specific to the Steel Sector, the CETA (Comprehensive Economic and Trade agreement) between India and UK, many items are expected to get duty free market access.
The biggest beneficiary of WAR is the metal Aluminium, since the war has ended naturally Aluminium prices are falling and that is impacting the specific sector that is operating. Aluminium prices are near 30% off from the recent peak.
Dollar moving higher, FED rate hike expectations remain the near-term head winds.
From the technical picture, the long legged doji, the gap down and huge selling at the upper area are pointer to the pressure on the downside. Lower-level consolidation is the way forward while the big-picture builds. 12300–13300 are the larger area while near term 12700–13200 to look for.
DXY - Global -Dur!
FED comes, market expectation of toeing the Trump line turns and flips. Warsh walks the line, unambiguously hawkish. Forward guidance taken off, the guard rail of recent communication for markets to infer. Credibility of FED soars, dollar runs through the resistance lines.
USDCAD breaks the bullish HnS while USDJPY walks past the intervention level 160 looks new base. With war ending and the return of reasonable level of crude oil prices, the shift is surely towards inflation, and the actions and credibility towards handling the inflation.
FED surely climbed many steps in that ladder and that is reflected in the dollar moves. Currency traders now aggressively price more dollar gains going forward as dollar pierces through the resistance and stays above 100 area.
Another aspect of potential dollar rise is the fast-moving tighter conditions in liquidity; Bloomberg data indicates the excess liquidity leading indicator (forward 6 months) moving into negative.
A rising dollar in current conditions means tightening global liquidity, (potential indication of stress), most of the crisis are preceded by dollar spikes.
After FED decision, the 2 years note and the long bond the yield move to flatter yield curves signalling a weaker growth and potentially risk off trade as signal.
From the technical picture 100 is the new base while it holds move to 101.80 is seen, from the technical picture, the inlet graph is the USDCAD break the inverse or the bullish HnS pattern. 100.30–101.30 range to help with focus more to the upside than downside.
TADAWUL - Heads you lose, Tails I win.
Saudi Arabia signs new agreements on FII Priority Europe 2026 summit that includes Saudi Contech, Red Sea Global and ACWA Power.
Saudi Arabia rose to 13th Globally and 3rd in the G20 in the IMD World Competitive report.
Consumer spending remains stronger $3.5 billion on weekly based on the POS transaction reflecting solid domestic demand.
BlackRock highlights potential for Saudi reforms to unlock long term capital markets, aligning with broader fiscal and investment goals.
Coming week data include Balance of Trade, Q1 Unemployment data and June PMI as well as May Industrial production data.
Bulls remain technically, heads I win, tails you loose mode inside the potential triangle pattern.
GOLD (XAU) - Rivalling the Dollar
Global fund managers consider Gold recent fall brought valuations to the fair level.
World Gold Council survey 89% believe central banks will increase reserves over next 12 months.
74% see Gold increasing the share while dollar remaining the second best in the next five years.
From the technical picture clearly the Gold and Dollar Index in recent times more so in the last one month reflecting an inverse relationship.
Immediate resistance around 4350 caps while move to below 4000 are not ruled out.
A watch on Dollar moves is worth the Gold!
SILVER (XAG) - Bulls Sil-wear out
Silver gets range shocks at either end. This time form hawkish fed and rising dollar. The broad precious and metals pack wilting under selling pressure.
India Silver imports hit 3 years low on import curbs.
Uncertainty around the macro headwinds, while demand from solar panels remains points to focus.
The border inflation trajectory or the hawkish tone of central banks, the new shift to no forward guidance, markets move to search for new anchoring to price many asset classes, silver usually acts major risk off.
A quick move past 68 is needed else risks towards 55–57 area.
60–70 range still in play.
Brent - Dual Reality
Price at the pump prices on the land, prices on the screen and actual prices, there is reality currently in the market.
The insurance costs for example are far higher than even before the war began. Risk premium fast eroded from missing barrels to excessive barrels, pumping from all over crude price fall below the 80 barrel and stabilise.
Despite the cease fire, market is not going to return to normalcy any time sooner. However, prices around 80–90 are new normal and world will easy with that higher base.
US strategic reserves hit 1983 lows 340KK barrels. 40 fully loaded super tankers are sitting inside the Persian Gulf that is near 80 million barrels. 21 of them are headed to Asia, 5 specifically to China.
Trump tells US has reserves at about 4 weeks and we would surely run out; this indicates a floor on energy prices as US would soon replenish the reserves.
Barclays says Iran deal won’t solve supply issues and keeps $100 target.
From the technical picture the fall halted near the 0.618% of the recent rise, the consolidation and price should ideally move in 78–88 range before asserting move higher.
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