Global Markets Weekly Report 6th June 2026

VOO becomes the first $1 trillion ETF. Vanguard's S&P 500 ETF ($VOO) crossed the historic $1 trillion AUM mark, supported by nearly $70 billion of inflows YTD.

SpaceX IPO may not enter Mega Cap Index immediately. Contrary to expectations, newly listed mega-cap companies typically wait 12 months after IPO before index inclusion.

Micron insider sale raises eyebrows. Micron's Chairman and CEO sold approximately $38.4 million worth of shares, drawing attention amid elevated AI-related valuations.

Trump pardons former securities fraud convict. Former Congressman Stephen Buyer received a presidential pardon after being convicted in an insider trading case linked to the Sprint–T-Mobile merger.

Tech concentration reaches historic levels. Technology and Communication Services now account for roughly 50% of the S&P 500, approaching levels seen during the dot-com era.

Blackstone limits private credit redemptions. Blackstone's private credit fund capped investor withdrawals at 5%, highlighting liquidity concerns in private market structures.

Strong data, higher expectations. Economic indicators remain resilient, but investors are increasingly questioning whether growth can justify current valuations in a higher-rate environment.

Technical picture turns fragile. Two weeks of gains were erased in a single session. Bears are watching for a potential Head & Shoulders formation, while bulls need a close above 7,480.

Key range remains 7,250–7,430. Until a decisive breakout occurs, markets are likely to remain trapped within this critical trading zone.

RBI Governor's grey tie sends a subtle signal. Markets read every bit of body language when leaders express and state objectives.

India's economic data beats expectations. Industrial production at 4.9% (est. 3.8%) for April; HSBC India PMI Services at 59.8 vs 58.9 previous.

Q4 real GDP growth hits 7.8% vs poll of 7.3%. Real GDP at 6.6% implies nominal GDP above 10%, suggesting inflation closer to 4% — well within the RBI corridor.

SIP stoppage ratio breaches 100%. First in 11 months. Two years of no returns, inflation and downgrade concerns push retail investors toward redemptions; muted market adds to worry.

Positive cues from global institutions. Morgan Stanley expects Indian equities to end stronger; Nomura sees data centres as a 30% CAGR opportunity; Japan's MUFG to launch $250M India fund.

Energy and trade developments supportive. CEPA with Oman; Oman replacing Qatar as top LNG supplier. Oil exports fall as refineries serve domestic needs amid Hormuz Strait stalemate; LPG demand at 5-year low.

Technical picture remains weak. NIFTY unable to move past 23,600 (downward version of 24,400). Risk of move towards recent low as end of wave 5 of ABC correction (part of C).

Critical range to watch. 22,600–23,600 remains the key range; bears holding the edge. Failure below 22,600 or break above 23,600 important to monitor.

RBI policy expands the Government securities under the "Fully Accessible Route" (FAR) expanding the universd securities. In addition, limits on short term investment, concentration of securities under General Route are removed. Government also announces removal of Capital gains tax on the bond investments.

Limits on NRI and OCI on equity traded instruments not registered under SEBI are increase, in addition to extending the facility to Persons Resident Outside India. Birth of new instruments to attract is sure to follow suit.

Concessional forex swap to ECB by PSU (expect some issuance from PSU's), similar swap to Banks for rising 3–5–year FCNR B deposits.

The last one is restoring the time for realisation of export proceeds to nine months.

expects financial year 27 consumer price inflation forecast to 5.1%, revised up from 4.6%.

However, policy stance has been kept neutral. RBI governor further says, "Supply shock to weigh in Quarter four numbers onwards. Elevated energy prices to moderate growth while asserting services export remains robust despite AI impact. Concerns remain on rural demand on expectation of weaker monsoon, raising inflation to impact purchasing power." The growth projections, however, have been lowered from 6.9% to 6.6%.

RBI India to launch producer price index. That will provide more cues about the price index, the inflation that can ultimately land into consumer price index. An input that will serve in the long term better to price various economic factors.

In addition, bulk deposits, banks can offer preferential rates, both domestic as well as NRE deposits. This one is surely rising the cost of funds for those banks that are starved of funds.

The picture above is the interest rate movement between India and US. Today the best FCNR 3–5–year rates at the largest PSU and PVT banks are around 3.5%, the USDINR swap for similar tenor is 3.1% tweak few percentage points either way. The MIFOR is 7.10% for similar tenor.

The FCNR deposits thus can at best move to 4% threshold leave a few bps around. Now from the investor point of view, similar yields are available or even more in USD else where with much better crediting rating or even Indian corporates (some need to be mindful of embedded options). Clearly, the path to final drop of this money is still an over-estimation and one can extrapolate like ECB.

Another point to note, investors world over expects interest rates to be elevated and no one wants to long duration hence 3-5 is not a sweet spot when one can do one year and roll over. One need to wait and see how they unfold.

From the NIFTYBANK, the move still below the channel and thus risks to the downside.

53000-55000 remains larger ranges to negotiate.

One need to wait and see how they unfold.

Rupee remained one of the best performing periods, but nothing to change the big picture. At best the measures confirm the underlying currency challenges as all measures are towards.

Measures are towards more inflows and FCY liquidity management. The measures are more inflows into liquidity and composition of Foreign Currency mopping and hence no direct impact on the spot.

Spot impact limited; bond flows key. Any direct impact on spot is from the expected bond flows as and when they materialise.

FII continue on the sell side. Foreign Institutional Investors remain net sellers across markets, keeping pressure on the currency.

Falling energy prices offer near-term cushion. Lower crude prices and softer precious metals reduce dollar import bills, easing external pressure.

Technical picture shows harmai pattern. More confirmation is needed before any dollar top. Rupee likely to remain in a 94.30–96.30 larger range.

From AI optimism to cost reality, time for a pause. After claims that we are in the best of times for technology and AI won't replace jobs, the rising cost of AI versus human labour suggests a pause for thought.

Nandan Nilekani: AI won't fully replace IT services. Infosys Chairman argues AI may not completely replace conventional IT services. "If coding becomes automated, why are we?" he asks.

AI won't make IT services irrelevant. He highlights that software development requires rigorous testing, system resilience, and reliability—areas where human expertise remains critical.

Demand for expertise is rising, not fading. Nilekani rejects concerns of job loss, stating AI is actually increasing demand for skilled professionals, not making them obsolete.

Technical picture: Volatility remains high. Rise and fall have been equally sharp; price action is still near the low, keeping conviction low despite short-term rallies.

Range-bound until clarity emerges. Last week's inverse head and shoulders pushed prices higher only to revert lower—exactly as expected. Markets don't bottom or top in a day. Below 31K, another test of recent lows or a new low cannot be ruled out. Stay in 27K–32K range; watch 28,500–30,500 in short term.

From precious to base metals crack. Higher interest rates, coupled with AI overvaluation and comments about froth, are now percolating into the metals space.

Rare earth metals benefitting from AI and Semiconductors. Demand from AI, semiconductor ecosystem, and GCC investments has been a key tailwind for rare earth and related metals.

Outlook remains uncertain. Given the shifting macro narrative and valuation concerns, investors need to wait and watch how the metals cycle unfolds from here.

Technical picture weakens. After the shooting star pattern, the index printed a bearish engulfing candle, signalling growing selling pressure.

Upward channel at risk of breakdown. The current upward channel could now be turning into an inverted bearish flag pattern, increasing downside risk.

Divergences signal more downside. With negative divergences building in the near term, bracing for further losses is prudent. Key range to watch: 12,700–13,300.

Dollar bulls close above 99.80 on weekly close. A weekly close above 99.80 would strengthen the near-term bullish case for the US Dollar and raise concerns for risk assets globally.

100.60 remains the key level to watch. The larger trend shifts only if the Dollar sustains above 100.60, potentially invalidating the broader bearish outlook.

Range-bound movement remains likely. For now, the Dollar appears comfortable within a broader 97.50–101.50 range, with no decisive breakout yet.

Risk-off sentiment favours Dollar strength. Periods of uncertainty and defensive positioning continue to support demand for the Dollar over risk-sensitive assets.

US 2-Year Treasury yields remain the fulcrum. Dollar price action continues to closely mirror movements in US 2-Year yields, making them a critical indicator to monitor.

Near-term range shifts higher. Technical positioning suggests a tighter working range of 99.50–100.50, with bulls holding a modest edge.

Gold surpasses US Treasuries as top holdings. Central banks are increasingly allocating more to gold than to US Treasuries, marking a structural shift in reserve preferences.

Backdrop of Treasury selling and currency defence. Countries are reducing US Treasury exposures, defending their currencies. Nations like Japan and Turkey are diversifying into gold and then using gold sales to support their own currencies.

4480–4580 resistance finally broken. The key range has been breached decisively, confirming a shift in market sentiment and opening the door to lower levels.

Price action nearing key supports. Gold is moving closer to the 200 DMA or the lower band of Donchian support, both critical technical levels to watch.

4480 now a strong overhead cap. Unless gold reclaims and sustains above 4480, rallies are likely to face strong selling pressure.

Market eyes 4000 as next key support. With momentum turning weak, the market is now fearing a deeper correction towards the 4000 level in the near term.

Government mandates DGFT nod for silver imports through banks. Importers must now obtain DGFT approval for silver imports routed through banking channels.

RBA gold selling claims lose steam. The buzz around RBA selling gold fades as counter claims emerge and gain more credibility.

ICAC and HDFC halt large ETF investments in gold. India's top funds decide to pause incremental large allocations into their gold ETFs. Silver, naturally, will be impacted too.

Gold weakens despite risk-off mood—sign of de-leveraging. Gold getting battered even as risk-off sentiment prevails suggests the market is de-leveraging positions.

Crypto crash and semiconductor sell-off weigh on silver. The sharp fall in crypto and semi stocks does not support the silver price action in the current environment.

Two directional paths from here. Chart structure shows either a relief rally from current levels or a quick panic move lower.

Downside risk carries higher probability. The weight of evidence leans towards further weakness. If that materialises, low 60s is what bulls may have to brace for.

63–73 is the new range. Expect silver to remain range-bound within 63 to 73 range until a clear breakout or breakdown occurs.

Japanese crude oil reserves hit the largest drawdown in its history. Reserves fell sharply, marking an unprecedented decline amid heavy domestic demand and reduced imports.

Chinese crude oil imports hit lowest levels in a decade. The drop suggests China is tapping into its strategic petroleum reserves instead of relying on external purchases.

Crude inventories dive: -80 million barrels vs. expected -3.3 million. One of the largest inventory draws on record, reflecting tighter supply conditions in the near term.

Prices fall amid US–Iran resolution and demand concerns. Geopolitical tensions ease while recession fears grow, raising the risk of demand destruction ahead.

Goldman warns of diesel crunch. Inventories are at 25-year lows, signalling tightness in distillate markets as peak demand season approaches.

US oil reserves hit lowest since 1980. Another sign strategic reserves are being used to manage prices and supply in a fragile market environment.

Fitch forecasts oversupply by September. Supply growth is expected to outpace demand, putting downward pressure on oil prices in the coming months.

Crude price outlook: 85 base, 105 risk. Balancing supply overhang, recession risks, and geopolitical factors, crude is likely to trade within this broad range for now.