As India steps into 2026, stock market news is being shaped by a powerful mix of fiscal trends, global geopolitics, and sector-specific policy shifts. From direct tax collections and food subsidy pressures to energy realignments, foreign defence partnerships, and regulatory changes across telecom and quick commerce, these developments are quietly influencing market sentiment and sector performance.
Understanding how this stock market news translates into real portfolio risks and investment opportunities for investors looking to stay ahead in 2026.
FY26 Direct Tax Collections Hit 73% of Target as Individual Tax Growth Slows
The Central Government has achieved about 73% of the full year target in direct tax inflows as of the first week of January 2026. For the full fiscal FY26, the budget has pegged a 13.2% growth in net tax revenues at ₹25.20 trillion. However, these are without the refund that are payable to the assessees for FY25, something that is still substantially pending. In FY26, the corporate tax receipts continue to be robust, but the real problem is with the individual tax collections. This is partly due to the lower tax rate announced by the government to boost consumption in India.
Germany Commits €1.24 Billion to India’s Green, Defence and Semiconductor Push
Germany has pledged €1.24 billion towards funding of green partnerships with India. This will be across sectors like minerals, upskilling, telecom, semiconductors, and defence. German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz had undertaken his first visit to India amid the rising differences between the US and Europe over possible action by Trump in Greenland. This includes the mega $8 billion deal between Thyssen Krupp of Germany and Mazagon Docks for joint manufacture of submarines in India, which will include technology transfer by the Germans to India.
Geopolitical Risks Emerge for India’s Agri Exports via Iran Trade Routes
The unrest in Iran has impacted India’s shipments of Basmati rice to Iran, including settlements for goods shipped. The unrest in Iran has led to a sharp fall in Basmati prices in Iran and delays in the settlement of dues. This has led Indian exporters to go slow on exporting Basmati rice to Iran. Apart from the exports to Iran, the unrest has also impacted India’s exports to Afghanistan, Turkey, and Russia through the Bandar Abbas route. Iran is among the biggest importers of Basmati rice from India; along with Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Iraq. Trading with Iran can attract US sanctions.
India Slips to Third Place in Russian Oil Imports After US Sanctions
As Reliance Industries and PSU OMCs cut their dependence on Russian oil, India has slipped to the position of third largest in Russian oil imports in the month of December 2025. India has cut down on buying Russian oil after the US imposed stiff sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. While China is still the top buyer of Russian oil, Turkey has replaced India as the second largest buyer of Russian oil. In fact, monthly imports from Russia fell 29% over November. At its peak, Russian crude was about 40% of India’s crude basket; and is now down to around 25% of the basket.
Centre Asks Quick Commerce Firms to Drop 10-Minute Delivery Promises
Centre asked all quick commerce companies to drop the 10-minute delivery branding, to address the impact it has on the safety of gig workers. Leading quick commerce players in India like Blinkit, Instamart, and Zepto have been competing for speedy delivery, something that has become quite controversial. Quick commerce companies have argued that the onus of 10-minute delivery is not on the gig worker but on the efficient logistics planning. However, the government is keen to set this debate to rest. Essentially, time-based promises will be discontinued.
Telecom Operators Seek Spectrum GST and License Fee Cuts Before Budget
The Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI), representing telecom players, has asked the government to slash regulatory levies and spectrum GST ahead of the Union Budget. They want the telecom license fees to be cut from the current 3% to the range of 0.5-1.0%. The sector needs more cash on hand to invest in next generation connectivity. In addition, there is the Digital Bharat Nidhi contribution of 5%, which also the COAI wants scrapped. Their argument is that even existing funds have not been fully utilized and the levy can start after the funds are used.
Food Subsidy Bill May Rise ₹25,000 Crore as Grain Stocks Surge
There are apprehensions that the food subsidy bill in the current budget could spike by ₹25,000 crore and the government is exploring ways and means to bridge this gap. Some of the strategies being considered are open market sales and ethanol pivot. Much of the cost spillover is due to holding foodgrains well above what is required to stabilize the MSP. The National Food Security Act supplies free food to nearly 81 crore people, which is above 55% of the Indian population. The current rice pool stock at 31 MT is more than 3 times the buffer required.
Why Groww’s Broker Model Delivers Superior Growth and Margins
Kotak Research has identified hidden moat in the stock of Groww, which could leave upside potential of another 20% on the stock. Kotak has assigned a buy rating with price target of ₹190 per share. According to Kotak, the Groww model scales faster and monetizes growth better. Today, Groww already commands the highest market share among brokers in the broking volumes and in share of active traders. Kotak estimates Groww to deliver 20% revenue CAGR over next 3 fiscal years with EBITDA margins likely to further expand from 55% to 60%.
