Does your portfolio go through February 1 2026? It’s that time of year again. With the coming of February 1, 2026, speculation, hope, and the annual middle-income prayer of, Will my taxes go down, fill the air by budget 2026.
The 2026 Union Budget is at a very interesting economic crossroads. In India, the GDP growth is estimated to be 8.2% in Q2 FY26, with inflation reducing to 1.33% in December 2025. Trade wars and outflows of $17.8 billion of FII throughout the world make the environment hostile.
To the retail investor, the budget is not really a policy document; it is a mood swing. Will Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman unleash the purse strings on salaried workers, or is she going to remain on a strict fiscal consolidation?
At Jarvis Invest, being a SEBI-registered investment advisor, we are planning what to get, rather than betting on what will happen. This is a factual analysis of what to look forward to in Budget 2026 and how to invest your portfolio using AI-based stock trading India.
The Macro Backdrop: Why 2026 is Different
We will move into tax slabs, but first, the numbers that are important. This is a busier year than usual for the government.
- Fiscal Deficit: FY27 is set to be at 4.3% of GDP (reducing by 0.4 in FY26). This is an indication that the government is giving much consideration to Fiscal Discipline rather than Freebies.
- Capital Expenditure (Capex): It is concentrated on infrastructure. Analysts believe that the Capex growth will be in the double digit to continue with 10-15% GDP momentum.
- The “Feel Good” Factor: The inflation rate of 1.33 is comfortable, and the government can afford to give relief without inciting a price increase. This is the best reason to have a tax cut this year.
The Middle Class Wishlist: What is on the Table?
The wishlist is always long, but this year the need for relief is more vocal because the cost of living in the city is increasing. And here are the 3 most expected expectations in the financial circles:
The Middle Class Wishlist: What’s on the Table this year from Budget 2026?
The wishlist is always lengthy every year, and this year, there is a stronger demand for relief because the cost of living in the city is increasing. The following are the top 3 expectations making news in the financial circles:
1. The Standard Deduction Hike
The Standard Deduction is now Rs 75,000 under the New Tax Regime.
- The Expectation: Analysts are foreseeing an increase to Rs 1,00,000 or even Rs 1,25,000.
- The Logic: This is the simplest means by which the government can restore money to the salaried class without making the tax structure confusing. It has a direct increase in disposable income, which leads to consumption, which is one of the drivers of the Indian economy.
2. The 80C Limit: The 12-Year Wait
The Section 80C limit of 1.5 Lakh has not increased since 2014.
- The Expectation: Industry associations such as AMCHAM have proposed increasing it to Rs 3.5 Lakh.
- The Reality Check: Although the popular demand is high, the government is steering taxpayers aggressively to the New Tax Regime (with no 80C). Increasing the temperature to 80 C would render the Old Regime alluring once again, which is probably not desired by the government. This is not one to wait on.
3. Capital Gains (LTCG) Relief
The elimination of indexation benefits that occurred last year left investors with much confusion and heartburn.
- The Expectation: The investors are hoping that the tax-free cap of the Long Term Capital Gains (LTCG) on equity can be increased to 2 Lakh, as opposed to 1.25 Lakh.
- Why it matters: Retail involvement is at an all-time high, and an increase in the exemption limit would lead to long-term holding, which would stabilize the market against selling by FII.
The “Budget 2026 Day” Volatility Trap
Traditionally, Budget Day is a rollercoaster. The Nifty can move by 2-3% in a single session on a single announcement.
Scenario A (The Populist Budget): It is announced that tax cuts will occur. FMCG (Auto) consumption stocks increase.
Scenario B (The Capex Budget): No tax cuts; however, huge infrastructure expenditures. Stocks Infra, Defense, and Railway rally.
Scenario C (The Disappointment): No adjustments. The market drops and then picks back up as it digests the stability.
The Mistake: The majority of retail investors attempt to make predictions of the victor. They purchase Railway stocks with the hope that they will be declared. In case the announcement is not made, they are stuck with the bag.
Here, Jarvis AI transforms the game.
Why You Need an AI Financial Advisor India in 2026
The AI tool for stock market India does not bother itself with the speech of the Finance Minister. It cares about data.
As humans are glued to the TV screen on the 1st of February, the Jarvis Invest app would be tracking millions of data points in real-time.
- Emotion-Less Execution: When the Budget is dismal, and the market has plummeted by 500 points, human investors will panic and sell. Jarvis examines the fundamentals. In case the crash is not justified, Jarvis artificial intelligence may give a signal of a Buy.
- Sector Rotation: When the Budget announces a giant subsidy on Green Energy, our AI for Indian stock market instantly recognizes the beneficiaries, not only the direct ones (such as solar panel producers) but also the indirect ones (such as glass producers or transmission grid companies).
- Risk Management: Jarvis Invest protects your portfolio. In case an announcement of the budget would adversely affect a particular sector (e.g., increased taxes on cigarettes hitting FMCG), the system will give you a warning to pull out before the stock runs out.
Conclusion
Whether or not the tax cut announcement is made by the FM, your objective is still the same: Wealth Creation.
A 10,000 tax savings are useless in case your portfolio suffers a loss of 50,000 on a bad choice of stocks. A disciplined, data-driven investment strategy that produces returns that are above the rate of inflation is the best tax relief you can give yourself.
Budget 2026 will come and go. Nevertheless, the necessity of smart investing is here to stay.
Do not allow the noise in the market to determine your future in terms of finance. You can rely on the Jarvis Invest app as the most reliable AI financial advisor in India and leave the volatility to the machine as you get to have fun.
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